Chemical Perspectives – Basic Chemicals – Despite what Dow suggests, still not enough being done to shorten the cycle
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Class IV wells for some US blue hydrogen; good news in a market that is otherwise still moving backwards.
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Failure – Fear of Reprisals Keeps Industry Silent on Tariffs – This May Be the Worst Strategy, Leading to Business Failures
• US industry is keeping quiet about the risksto White House policy. Assuming the plansmove forward (likely without objections) you mustcarefully assess plans for survival
• No multinational company or anyone US only based, but reliant on imported inputs or exports for additional sales, will come out of this unscathed, and recession hurts all.
• Harsh chemical industry downcycles are ALWAYS driven bydemand shock, never supply.Companies should not model past cycles butrather identify scenarios that could be fatal.
• Except for the industrial gas companies, we have failure scenarios for every company in the chart below. Understanding what could drive failurewill improve balance sheet focus.
• Q1 earnings calls will show who is taking the US policy risk seriously, but there are credible scenarios whereby everyone on the left side of the chart below should raise equity, soon.
