Trading Jobs and Demand: The Inevitable Recession? – No Obvious Silver Linings

ByPentant

Global Chemicals – Report #3 – April 8th, 2025

Trading Jobs and Demand: The Inevitable Recession? – No Obvious Silver Linings

  • With billions of dollars erased from chemical company valuations last week, and tariffs in full swing, some “left field” corporate strategy options may start to look less crazy
  • Even if the Administration had a “just kidding” moment and tried to walk back recent trade orders and immigration hard lines, the damage is done, global consumers are holding back. 
  • Layoff risk is rising everywhere as companies take more cautious views – this is not just happening in transition – orders are shrinking and in our view a recession is now likely. 
  • Contagion in the US should spread elsewhere, and global economic growth in 2025 could disappoint meaningfully.  Chemical industry surpluses will look much worse than expected. 
  • Lower than expected earnings in 2025 will drive faster failures in the transition space, and maybe some in chemicals where leverage is high.  Rationalization for chemicals will follow. 

Figure 1: US Consumer Confidence tumbled again in March

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